3/30/2023 0 Comments Gridded response pdf![]() The feedbacks between global warming and hydrological processes affect precipitation patterns and the frequency of extreme weather events. Ĭlimate change is another stressor in hydrological water balance. This human population growth and socio-economic advancement have been made possible by the industrial and agricultural revolutions leading to a dramatic increase in energy, water and other natural resource consumption. Similarly, the global landscape shifted from a predominantly wild or semi-natural state with very little use for agriculture and settlement in 1700 to most of the land now used for agriculture and urban development. This has been accompanied by cities’ development and a general demographic shift away from rural communities to major urban centres, a characteristic feature of land-use landcover changes (LULC) in the Anthropocene period. From 1800 to 2000, the global population increased from less than 1 billion to 6.5 billion, with a projected increase to 9 billion by 2050. Globally, human-induced changes have become so significant over the past two centuries that they are now seen as marking a new Anthropocene era. Human population growth, accompanied by an increase in technological development over time, has led to a significant increase in the utilisation of land, water, energy, minerals and biological resources to meet human socio-economic needs. More weight should be given to improving land management practices to counter the imminent increase in the surface runoff to avoid an increase in non-point source pollution, erosion, and flooding in the urban watersheds. The study results highlight the reliability of gridded data as an alternative to instrumental measurements in limited or missing data cases. ![]() This suggests that the land use influence on the surface runoff response is more significant than that of climate change. In contrast, the combine effects of land use change and climate change simulated a steady increase in surface runoff under both scenarios. Compared to the 2010–2016 period, simulated surface runoff response to climate change showed a decline under RCP4.5 and an increase under RCP8.5. Mean temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.3–1.5 ☌ under RCP4.5 and about 2.6–3.5 ☌ under RCP8.5 by 2100. Climate projections predict a decline in March–May rainfall and an increase in the October–December season. ![]() ![]() The analysis results show that further conversion of grasslands and forests to agriculture and urban areas doubled the runoff depth between 19. The gridded data predicted streamflow accurately with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.89 in both calibration and validation phases. ![]() Simultaneously, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Program (CORDEX) and their ensemble were evaluated for model skill and systematic biases and the best performing model was selected. In this study, we used the new generation of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) dubbed SWAT+ to assess the viability of using high resolution gridded data as an alternative to station observations to investigate surface runoff response to continuous land use change and future climate change. In African catchments with limited current and historical climate data, precise modelling of potential runoff regimes is difficult, but a growing number of model applications indicate that useful simulations are feasible. In addition to climate change, there are increased uncertainties in the water balance and these feedbacks cannot be modelled accurately due to scarce or incomplete in situ data. The Anthropocene period is characterised by a general demographic shift from rural communities to urban centres that transform the predominantly wild global landscape into mostly cultivated land and cities. ![]()
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